The physician shortage in the United States is projected to be a critical concern as we approach 2025, with significant implications for healthcare delivery. The AAMC’s latest projections indicate that the nation could face a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. This shortage is already impacting healthcare delivery, as evidenced by the current wait times to fill primary care and specialist positions, which have reached 125 and 135 days, respectively.
Key Drivers of the Shortage
Several key drivers contribute to this growing shortage. Demographically, the U.S. population is expected to grow by 8.4% by 2036, with a notable 34.1% increase in those aged 65 and older. Compounding this trend is the imminent retirement of a significant portion of the current physician workforce; 20% of clinical physicians are 65 or older, and another 22% are between the ages of 55 and 64.
Healthcare organizations are also grappling with workforce challenges, such as rising labor costs, shortages of clinical talent, increased clinician burnout, and high turnover rates.
Most In-Demand Specialties for 2025
Among the most in-demand specialties are primary care and internal medicine, with a projected shortfall of 14,900 to 35,600 physicians. Surgical specialties are also facing considerable shortages, with demand expected to reach between 25,200 and 33,200 by 2025. Particular specialties in demand include vascular surgery, neurosurgery, general surgery, urology, and ophthalmology.
Regional Impact
Regionally, the physician shortage is especially acute in rural areas, where recruitment issues have been exacerbated since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. The South is predicted to experience the most significant surgeon shortfalls, with a deficit of 10,210 full-time equivalents anticipated.
Employment Outlook
Despite these challenges, healthcare executives maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025, with 69% expecting revenue growth. Nevertheless, 58% of health system executives foresee continued workforce challenges influencing their organizational strategies. To address these challenges, healthcare organizations are developing pipeline programs for advanced degrees, implementing automation for administrative tasks, creating hospital-at-home programs, and forming regional partnerships to ensure coverage.
Future Implications
The physician shortage is likely to worsen without additional investments in physician training. As older physicians retire, healthcare organizations increasingly rely on advanced practice providers working to their full scope to fill gaps. Given the growing and aging population, this trend signals continued strong employment opportunities for physicians in most specialties through 2025 and beyond.